Recently I’ve been reading a lot of articles on the housing market and how it’s been impacted by macro economic policy of the U.S. One article that stands out to clear the air on the roots of inflation and it’s so-called “archenemisis” deflation is Frank Shostak’s Is Deflation Really Bad for the Economy.

I spend a lot of time on mises.org. Not because all my ideas on economics fall in the so-called “Libertarian” camp, although I find many of my own views inline with many Libertarian views, but I can get straight non-partisan, non-baised information on what makes the global economy tick from the likes of mises.org.

It’s not for lack of trying to understand the “conventional” mainstream economic wisdom, but at some point you have to let go and look for greener pastures of understanding. So as we all know, the source of our economic woes was a huge bubble in real estate, prices soared beyond their intrinsic value, investors hedged their bets on those inflated prices and when the cheap credit and cash ran out, prices corrected themselves and we are now experiencing a dramatic price correction in the economy. Unfortunately we are experiencing a huge price correction on all areas of the economy because the real estate industry doesn’t happen in a vacuum. There are many industries that are tethered to real estate, so if real estate gets the “financial flu”, everyone else is going to get “financial pneumonia”.

As stated in the title of Shostaks’ article, “Is Deflation Really Bad for the Economy?”. Well..in the case of the U.S economy yes and no, but overall…No. It’s going to be bad for those individuals who were apart of those jobs in industries that experienced “bubble” prices. Meaning those prices weren’t real and any macroeconomic attempt by the Fed to prop up those inflated prices is a recipe for disaster. The prudent way to go is getting an asset back to it’s “real” price and not the fake “bubble” price. You can’t build off of something that was never supposed to be there in the first place. The “Great Recession” that you are seeing in the U.S. and other economies is a price correction. If there are pockets in the economy that are experiencing a value/price correction, then this is a good thing.

How is any economy going to experience any efficiency or proper recovery if you prop up areas of the economy that are correcting themselves? There are only x-amount of savings and investment resources in the economy and propping up “dead areas” of the economy will create artificial demand (i.e. housing) which is just another bubble. A bubble is just a misuse of resources, not something that is healthy for any economy.

I’ll close with Thomas Wood’s wonderful analogy from his book Meltdown: A Free Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse. No better explanation can sum up the danger that lies ahead if we continue to artificially maintain areas of the economy that deserve a value correction:

Consider a circus that comes to town for a few weeks. A restaurant owner may expand his seating capacity in the false expectation that the circus and the related demand for his food that it brings in its wake will last forever. But when the circus leaves town, he’ll find he has “idle resources” on his hands. We should not want to put these idle resources to work. Doing so would only draw labor and other resources away from other sectors of the economy, where they are employed in the satisfaction of real consumer demand. The expansion of the restaurant should not have occurred in the first place. We should want this bubble activity to shrink back down to size, in order that other, non-bubble activities in the economy can be correspondingly strengthened.

In the wake of a previous, unsustainable boom brought about by the central bank’s credit expansion, the market economy and its price system, left to their own devices, will adopt another arrangement of resources that employs available factors in the service of producing goods and services that correspond to real consumer demand. During the bust, free individuals interacting within the market nexus sort out which projects and business ventures are healthy and sustainable, and which are bubble activities that cannot survive without a constant artificial increase in the money supply, and cannot (and should not) survive now that reality has reasserted itself.

• Tooth Fairy Economics by Thomas Woods
• Our Insane System of mortgage finance? by John Papola
• The Fed Can’t Solve Our Economic Woes by Gerald P O’Driscoll Jr.
• Is Deflation Really Bad for the Economy? by Frank Shostak

WIHTJ fans, sorry it took me so long to write Part II of Economics Made Simple. The series covers the following topics:

1. Part I: Renting vs Buying a home
2. Part II: Why Can’t I Make Ends Meet?
   (How I found the Austrian School of Economics)
3. Part III: Saving Money vs Serfdom
4. Part IV: Casino Capitalism

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. The Austrians and Mises
3. John Maynard Keynes
4. Conclusion
5. Economic Resources that will increase your Financial Neurons

After completing the first version of this blog post, I decided to send it to my good friend of mine John Papola, who does the blog But What the Hell do I Know I wanted some honest feed back on my Keynesian vs Austrian School post. In so many nice and friendly words he was able to tell me…well..it sucked. Every now and then it’s good to eat some humble pie. So I did (that pie was pretty good), and I went back to the drawing board. Keep in mind that I consider my boy JP quite a seasoned economist, albeit unofficial, when it comes to the Keynesian Economics and Austrian School comparison, so I knew I had to go back to the drawing board.

In the first version, I tried to make a case for which economic school is a better approach (which I failed at) or attempt at framing what each school is (which I failed to do) or not distort what the Austrian or Keynesian school is (which I mistakenly did). Unfortunately I lost track of what I really wanted to do. I will forgo the Herculean tasks of comparing each school and explain how I found the Austrian School of Economics. What I really wanted to do was frame the following rhetorical and general questions:

• Hey, did you know that there is this economic school of thought that was driven by John Maynard Keynes, and this same school of thought dominates a lot of economic policy in the United States of America?
• In addition, did you know that the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) dominates economic policy in the United States of America? Do you know what the Federal Reserve Bank does?
• Why do we have financial crises and what is the root of how they get started, what caused them, and what can fix them?
• Did you know that there is a school of economic thought called the Austrian School of Economics, that trying to offer a model that explains how the economic world works around us. They understand that it is impossible to control every single move in the economy because it is a dynamic amoeba-like entity that has way too many variables to control?
• Are you aware that to understand this economic mess that it will take more than reading this short blog, but months and months, if not years of grueling eye-busting reading of economic books, articles, podcasts, etc.
• Are you aware that you are about to stop reading this blog post, because of what I said in the previous bullet?
• Are you aware that making the sacrifice to acquire this knowledge will probably make you more informed about why U.S. economic policy is the way that it is and how it’s run it like a bunch of blind orangutans on crystal meth?
• Do you want to understand what true Healthcare reform means?
• Is it important for you to understand the true pros and cons of government policy decisions in the United Sates of America?

Now that you know the precursor, lets give it another go….

Introduction

I was probably hit by the “financial education” bug when I started cleaning up my debt situation around 2000. I’ve been waving the “Hey Folks, America’s household debt is unsustainable” flag for more than 10 years. I never knew what the source of the problem was, but watching the debt-to-asset ratio skyrocket, while concurrently seeing the personal savings rate plummet was not a sign of good times to come. To be honest, I had no idea what was in store for the U.S Economy 8 years later. I just felt that this is not a good situation. An eye opener for me was two things. The stock market bubble of 2000 and last years financial collapse in October of 2008.

I played around in the stock market for several years. (Buying individual stocks and indexes) By following a true value investing/contrarian approach I was able to do pretty well. By adhering to those principles of investing prudence, raking across the 8-K and the 10-K while taking into account the intrinsic value of a companies stock, I was able to avoid a lot of the pitfalls that lured people into the “speculation” stock market bubble of 2000. Yes I made mistakes, but not deal breakers. I never cared whether we were in a bear or bull market. Bear and Bull markets do and don’t matter. (It depends on the situation). Stock market bubbles get headlines, but it’s the diligent investor who spends time understanding what he or she is investing in who wins in the end. This type of effort takes time and patience, which is why most people will invest in whatever is coming from the “water cooler”

After 2000 I didn’t get into anything more than just personal finance. Around 2007 to 2008, the calamity started with Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, AIG, the housing market bubble, billion dollar bailouts for banks, investment houses, etc, and thats when it all started. Before these events, I was not aware of how tightly wound the FED was around the U.S. government. At the time I was only aware of the FED moving the fed funds rate up and down to allegedly “cool” or “heat up” the economy. I didn’t know the history of the FED, when the FED was started, not to mention what type of batting average the FED had in stabilizing the economy. I grew some “Rothbardian” legs, if you will, and the rest is history.

Mises and the Austrians

My first entrance into understanding the tip of “Austrian Economic” iceberg was a site called Mises.org. If the Austrian School of Economics was a trunk of a tree, this would be one of many branches off the trunk. For the sake of not making the same mistake twice, I’m going to leave it to you to go to mises.org and assess whether the information is useful or not. They have a wonderful blog called Mises Daily and it’s chock full of morsels of econ delights that will whet your appetite for more economic information.

Lets be honest. Even at the introductory level, this is pretty heavy stuff, but that shouldn’t deter you. I do believe that one of the reasons why Americans are in the fog of economic war when it comes to U.S economic policy is they don’t understand the “whys” of a particular policy decision. Nor do we know where to go to get that information. If you go to the FED website, and click on one of their documents you would need a phd in economics to understand what they are talking about. Oh..and you don’t need a Phd in economics to understand economics. Have the “ivory tower” economists had no idea that this crisis was on our heels and many dismissed the warning signs. Not to completely dismiss the high academic economic trade, but don’t let fancy three letter acronym’d individuals scare you into believing that only THEY know what’s happening in the economy. Too many of them have no idea. We often fall back on our ideological partisan heels, without trying to truly understand the merits and consequences of certain policy decisions. Should we have a minimum wage tax? What are the impacts of having a central bank that dials the economy up and down at will? What is the true impact of the Cash for Clunkers initiative on the economy? What was the involvement of the FED with past and present financial crises? What are the economic solutions available for bringing countries out of poverty and what examples do we have of countries that have already achieved this?

I could go on and on, but these are just a sample of questions about the things that impact our day-to-day lives. Now check out the latest Google Trends. Do you see any broad searches like “Federal Reserve Bank’, “Keynesian Economics”, “Austrian Business Cycle Theory” etc? These are three very powerful terms that you should familiarize yourself with, yet they never ever enter into our stratosphere of topics. Are we surprised that the FED can swoop in and not have any idea where 9 trillion dollars went while Americans are more concerned about fictitious “death panels” in healthcare or whether the Obama earned the right to get the Nobel Peace Prize? We have bigger fish to fry, check out this shocker:

John Maynard Keynes

The first time I heard about anything related to Keynes was through mises.org. I had no intentions of investigating the ideologies of Keynes, but many of the ideologies from Keynes have weaved themselves into the current economic policy of the United States of America. I wanted to get at the heart of what inspires the U.S. government to do what they do. I’ll provide resources at the end of this blog post that will get you up to speed on who Keynes is and how his ideologies have influenced U.S. economic policy. There is a lot of history there, and it will take you a while to churn through all the books, articles, and videos about Keynes. Here is a good start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics (Keynesians Economics).

Clearly Keynesian economics has made a huge comeback in recent years due to the current collapse of the economy. Are We All Keynesians Now?. I wonder what Keynes would say if he saw this current crisis? I’m sure Paul Krugman would be delighted. Keynes most famous work is the The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money. This is what what put Keynes on the map.

Conclusion

This post is about awareness. I have come to realize that having a surface understanding of U.S. economic policy has not served me, or anyone else well. Especially those who consider themselves poor, downtrodden or apathetic about the political process. How are we to make educated decisions about government policy if we don’t understand what it is and how it works? How are we to support bills that are created in the house and senate if we don’t understand what is being passed into law? I felt I had a lackluster understanding of certain presidential candidates, U.S. tax policy, U.S economic policy choices, local state regulations, etc which prompted me to get serious about researching these same items. As a matter of fact, this is more important than what your party affiliation is. This is not a left or right wing post. This is not a pro free-market or pro socialism post. This is a post about making informed decisions and holding our government accountable, including ourselves. Regardless of whether you consider yourself someone on the left, conservative, right, republican, democrat, independent, rich, poor, middle-class, wealthy, religious, atheist, deprived, a victim, a power broker, keynesian, austrian, communist, libertarian, socialist, indifferent, etc, you should consider what I just wrote in this post. Being a blind ideologue is easy, but spending the time to understand things properly is more difficult. Too many people choose the former instead of the latter. Two things to remember, there is no such thing as a free lunch and a government is only as good as the people who support it.

Books

• Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt
• The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money by John Maynard Keynes
• Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek
• Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith
• The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 by Paul Krugman
• America’s Great Depression by Murray N. Rothbard
• Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse by Thomas E. Woods Jr. and Ron Paul